RIBA survey: workload expectations turn positive in February

Architects’ expectations for future workloads have turned positive for the first time in three months, according to the latest RIBA Future Trends survey.

February’s Workload Index rose (+5), reflecting increased confidence in the residential and commercial sectors and an improving outlook across most UK regions.

The latest survey indicates that 29% of architectural practices expect workloads to grow over the next three months, while 24% anticipate a decline. Forty-seven per cent expect no change. The difference between those expecting more work and those expecting less increased by seven points from (-2) in January to (+5) in February.

The outlook has improved across all sectors, with residential and commercial projects expected to see growth. The private housing sector’s Workload Index rose (+8), the highest since mid-2022, while the commercial sector returned to positive territory (+6).

The community sector remains negative at -7, but this marks an improvement from January (-14). The public sector also saw a slight uplift, though its workload index remains negative (-4).

Regionally, London reported the most positive sentiment at +14, the highest level of confidence in the capital since mid-2022. The outlook for Wales and the West turned positive for the first time in months, moving from -12 in January to +3 in February.

The North of England remains optimistic, though its Index figure dipped slightly from +8 to +6. In contrast, the South of England and the Midlands & East Anglia continue to report negative outlooks, though both saw improvements, rising to -1 and -2, respectively.

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The RIBA Permanent Staffing Index also returned to positive territory, rising to +4 from January (-4). Seventeen per cent of practices expect to increase staff numbers in the next three months, while 13% anticipate reductions.

Large and medium-sized practices (11 or more staff) are more confident about hiring than smaller firms. Regionally, London recorded the most positive staffing outlook (+8), while Wales and the West were the only areas expecting a decline, with a Staffing Index figure of -2.

The demand for temporary staff also increased, with the Temporary Staffing Index rising (+7) from January (-6), particularly among small practices and firms in the North of England.

Despite the shift to a more positive outlook, challenges remain for many practices. RIBA Head of Economic Research and Analysis, Adrian Malleson, said: “After three months of the profession anticipating declining workloads, this month sees a welcome return of near-term optimism.

“Positive outlooks in the housing and commercial sectors have spurred overall confidence, with the Housing Sector reaching its highest Index figure since mid-2022. This improved outlook is seen nationwide, with only one region reporting a negative outlook. London stands out as the most positive region.”

However, Malleson cautioned that risks remain. “Despite this increased optimism, significant risks to future growth remain. These include heightened geopolitical uncertainty and growing threats to global supply chains due to protectionist trade policies,” he said.