WA100 2025: Western Europe leads on net zero

This year Gensler, the world’s biggest practice, saw the number of architects it employs drop below the 3,000 mark, the milestone which it broke through in 2023. The second-placed firm, Arcadis, also saw numbers fall. But these drops mean little when measured against the wider profession; our annual survey of the world’s largest architects reveals the real story is that not much has changed since last year.

Gensler reports that it had a tough year, thanks to high interest rates holding  back client investment in the US. Meanwhile Arcadis’s minor drop in the number of architects it employs could be down to a corporate decision to pull back from the Middle Eastern market. Elsewhere, many of the top 10 architects increased their numbers in line with similar increases in previous years. This trend continues down the rankings; the overall number of architects employed by the world’s 100 biggest firms increased by 13%.

Our recruitment data shows that this trend is unlikely to change for now. More firms, compared with 2024, said they weren’t intending to let any architects go or that they intended to recruit more than 50 architects this year. Firms report that retaining and attracting talented architects is one of their biggest challenges, particularly in high-growth markets and among those with specialised skills.

In terms of finding work, our 2025 survey reveals very little change in architects’ expectations about future work prospects. This year 59% expect to see growth, a small drop on last year’s 61%. More architects expect to see stagnation, but this is counterbalanced by a drop in the numbers expecting decline. On balance, there is a 2% increase in optimism for 2025.

One bright spot in our survey of architects’ perceptions of risks to their businesses is that they see climate change not as a threat but rather as an opportunity

Like last year, the Middle East is the region architects think offers the best growth prospects, with booming Saudi Arabia named as the best place to be. Confidence in North America has slipped slightly, as has the Pacific Rim, which includes China. Western Europe remains firmly anchored at the bottom of the confidence table, thanks to stagnating economies and high levels of sovereign debt.

Feelings about growth are broadly comparable to 2020 before the pandemic struck, although some of that is now coming from different regions. But the world is a very different place in 2025, with Russia, Iran, North Korea and China increasingly aligning against the West.

This alliance is becoming more confident; Russia is making gains in Ukraine with the help of North Korean troops and Iranian ballistic missiles. The proxy war in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has spread from Gaza to Lebanon. And there are fears over China’s intentions towards Taiwan and a hidden war of sabotage and cyber attacks being waged by Russia and China against the West.

Trump’s recent election meanwhile heralds four years of unpredictable decision-making, with a determined focus on short‑term US interests.

Unsurprisingly, when we asked architects what they regarded as the biggest risks to their business, they almost unanimously identified geopolitical instability. Investors don’t like instability, and tend to react by slowing or cancelling projects. Conflict disrupts supply chains and stokes inflation, leading to higher costs. Insurance premiums rocket and, in the case of large international practices, makes doing business across borders more difficult.

Architects are also concerned about macroeconomic volatility including inflation, higher interest rates and recession. This holds private and public investment back, with less government money for schools, hospitals and other government projects.

This geopolitical and economic uncertainty hasn’t been helped by Trump’s re-election. Leaving aside the risks of Trump cutting support for Ukraine and China seizing the opportunity to realise its ambition to take Taiwan back under its umbrella, there are Trump’s threatened tariffs. These include a 20% tariff on all US imports, with higher rates for Canada, Mexico and China. US architects expressed concern about tariffs after Trump’s election but were optimistic that his policies would promote growth. If he follows through on these threats, tariffs could push up US prices and cause inflation or dampen demand for overseas goods, damaging the economies of exporting countries.  

One bright spot in our survey of architects’ perceptions of the biggest risks to their businesses is that they see climate change not as a threat but rather as an opportunity. Nearly 50% thought that Western Europe was the most advanced in promoting net zero buildings, with 20% identifying the Pacific Rim including China as taking the lead. North America was in third place, with only 11% seeing it as the most advanced – so if Trump dials down US net zero policy, there are plenty of other places in the world for architects to sell their expertise.

This is being bolstered by our finding that many of the world’s biggest architects are investing heavily into net zero research, tools and processes to make the most of these opportunities. The next few years are likely to be unpredictable and bumpy, but again architects are proving their adaptability to make the most of the opportunities that are around.

Thomas Lane, WA100 editor

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