Where now for a net zero Scotland?

In parallel with COP 26 being hosted in Glasgow 2021, the Scottish government had launched its Just Transition framework, promising a “fairer, greener Scotland” with a key target being net zero carbon emissions by 2045. With the built environment being responsible for 40% of carbon emissions in the UK, it was to play a key role in ensuring that this can be delivered.

2024 also saw the Scottish Government supporting plans relevant to the construction industry already published or in the pipeline to be published. The Transformation Action Plan by the Construction Leadership Forum, a collaboration between the Scottish construction sector and the Scottish Government, was published January 2024. It outlines the strategy for achieving the Scottish Construction Accord outcomes towards a more sustainable industry.

Additionally, a consultation on the Scottish Government’s Heat in Buildings Bill closed on 8 March and their consultation on the Scottish National Adaptation Plan closed on 24 of April. And critically, the draft Just Transition Plan for the Built Environment and Construction is due to be published later this year.

The industry itself is less likely to invest if the future looks uncertain

It was within this context that the Scottish Ecological Design Association together with Built Environment-Smarter Transformation, Historic Environment Scotland, Zero Waste Scotland and Scottish Futures Trust, coordinated a series of events at the start of this year under the name The Big Conversation, funded by the Scottish Government.

The events investigated how the just transition could be realised within the construction and built environment industry. Over five days during February and March the issue was scrutinised through presentations as well as break out discussions.

One critical aspect identified was the need for the Scottish Government to deliver a clear message to ensure everyone works towards the same overarching goals - something that is now clearly at risk. The importance of long-term engagement and transparency was highlighted, to counterbalance conspiracy theories spreading, such as the one claiming that the 20-minute neighbourhood model is a government tool implemented to restrict personal freedom.

The urgent need for practical support and investment from the government to create skilled workers in Scotland was also highlighted, with projected targets currently being missed. The current focus of investment for green skills development is at college and university level. This means that there is a risk of existing workers with transferable skills being overlooked and left behind.

Industry needs to be supported in upskilling holistically to ensure sections of the workforce are not negatively impacted. A just transition needs to be inclusive of all ages, abilities and genders for it to be successful. It should also be adaptable to support the diverse range of needs that exist in urban as well as rural Scotland. We must remain hopeful that industry is committed to these changes, even as the government goes through a period of turbulence.

The discussions also identified the issue of the government’s annual budget, which does not best serve long-term strategies for financial support. What is needed is not just money to be invested but also certainty in terms of time and commitment to ensure high quality implementation. The industry itself is less likely to invest if the future looks uncertain. Bipartisanship is critical to ensure consistent delivery through each parliamentary term - something else that recent events have served to make less likely.

Today, with the Scottish government in disarray, the situation looks even less certain

The final day saw representatives from the Danish Government presenting their path towards decarbonising the built environment. One key aspect of them implementing their carbon reduction strategy is consistent engagement and communication with the private and third-party sector as well as communities, to achieve the consensus required for change.

Consensus has been identified as critical within the Scottish Governments Just Transition plan to achieve long-term targets. The question is whether the Scottish Government is currently being successful in developing a clear strategy for the construction industry to feed into, get behind and adapt to.

The responsibility for delivering the 2045 net zero framework will predominantly fall on millennials and generation Z to deliver. Yet despite the importance of these generations in achieving key outcomes, engagement targeted to this demographic of the construction industry has so far been lacking.

The Scottish Government needs to break away from its own silo if it wants to develop trust and ensure everyone starts working towards the goals they are setting. A mutual collaboration between the Scottish Government and construction industry needs to be established that is inclusive of all levels and professions, not just current leaders who will retire within the next 10 years.

If the government cannot determine and communicate a clear path to transformation, and instead opts for an indecisive action plan delivered in a top-down approach, there is a high risk that the next generation inheriting the delivery ends up having to start from scratch. And by then with current projections, we will have already passed the point of no return.

Today, with the political parties distrustful of each others’ motives, the situation looks even less certain. Industry, government and all those stakeholders who are committed to delivering a net zero future must redouble their efforts to work for a just transition in Scotland.