Move comes amid growing confusion around government studies

London skyline

Source: Shutterstock / IRS Stone

Construction is among nine sectors that will be investigated in an independent economic analysis into the impact of Brexit on Londoners commissioned by the city’s mayor.

Sadiq Khan commissioned the studies after the government flip-flopped on whether sectoral analyses of the impact of Brexit exist.

Khan criticised prime minister Theresa May and David Davis, the Brexit secretary, for their “chaotic” approach to Brexit, which he warned was “putting jobs and growth at risk” in the capital.

He said: “It is outrageous that the government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis. If it’s the former then I question their competence. If it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide.

Sadiq-Khan

Sadiq Khan

”We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth I have commissioned this independent analysis to do exactly that for London’s key sectors – and I will publish it in full.”

The investigation will look at Brexit’s impact on economic output and employment for the capital, as well as the wider UK. It will also focus on the fact many people working in other towns and cities across Britain are employed by London-based companies in order to do business globally.

This summer, Davis said the government had conducted “nearly 60 sector analyses” on the impact of Brexit.

Earlier this month, he provided the Exiting the European Union Committee and the devolved administrations with 850 pages of analysis that made no forecasts on its impact. Last week he said that impact assessments did not exist.

Khan’s analysis will be published in full in January and will be used as the basis for a plan that will be put to government to lessen the impact of Brexit on London’s economy.

The other industries that will feature in the analysis by independent economic experts Cambridge Econometrics include financial and professional services, the healthcare and the hospitality sectors and science and technology.

 

Five scenarios will be modelled to illustrate the range of possible outcomes from Brexit

  • A ‘status quo’ scenario where the UK remains part of both of the single market and customs union
  • A soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the single market, but not the customs union
  • Another soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the customs union, but not the single market
  • A hard Brexit scenario in which trade between the UK and the EU falls under WTO rules with a two-year transition period from March 2019
  • The same hard Brexit scenario but without the transition period

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